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PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
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THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Two reservoirs that supply 40 million people are nearly empty
The reservoirs behind Hoover and Glen Canyon dams have not been this low since before one of them existed. Washington has given the seven states fighting over what is left until October to agree.
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Two of America’s reservoirs just hit bottom. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the country, have not held this little water combined since 1957. That year, Lake Powell did not exist yet. Glen Canyon Dam was still under construction.
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Here is why this reaches you even if you live nowhere near the desert. This one river irrigates roughly fifteen percent of the nation’s crops. It also lights homes and businesses across seven states.
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Lake Powell sat at about 3,526 feet in mid-July, only 36 feet above the line engineers call dead pool. Below that line, a dam cannot spin its turbines. The power it makes simply stops.
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Lake Mead sits a little healthier, but not by much. It is less than a foot above its own record low, set in 2022. Both lakes are fed by a river divided in 1922 among seven states, on paper more generous than the river itself. On paper only.
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The rules governing both dams expire at the end of this year. They were written in 2007, when nobody expected drought this severe, this fast. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with all seven governors on Tuesday, looking for a deal before the deadline arrives.
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No deal came out of that meeting. Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico are blocking a separate deal for the Navajo and Hopi tribes. That deal would let the tribes lease water to fast-growing cities near Phoenix. Not yet.
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The Bureau of Reclamation has promised a final decision by October 1, whether the states agree or not. That is the federal agency that actually operates both dams. For a century, seven states negotiated that kind of decision among themselves. You cannot unring it, once Washington starts deciding alone.
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This is the one to watch beneath the drought headlines. Rain can still refill a reservoir. A rule written by one federal agency, without full agreement from seven states, does not un-write itself as easily.
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
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Can it be undone?
Rain and snowpack could still refill these lakes over a wet decade. The precedent of Washington deciding alone, once set, is far harder to reverse.
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Who is already repositioning?
Secretary Burgum has already brought all seven governors to one virtual table. Four of those states are separately holding up water rights for the Navajo and Hopi tribes.
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What does being late cost?
October 1 is the real deadline the Bureau of Reclamation set for itself. Missing it hands the next several decades of rules to a federal document instead of a seven-state agreement.
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
If you live, farm, or run a business inside the Colorado River Basin, check your water provider’s drought contingency tier this week. Do it before the Bureau’s decision locks in the next round of cuts.
This mainly matters if your water, power, or paycheck runs through the Colorado River Basin. If you live outside it, the hit arrives slower, mostly through what produce costs at the store. |
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Most people will only notice this fight the day their water bill jumps or a tap runs slower than it used to. Tonight you already know the one date, October 1, that decides who writes the next chapter. WE WATCH THE BOX.
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