PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Three months decide your whole 2027 cheque. Two are already locked.
The September inflation number lands Wednesday at 8:30. Social Security sets next year’s raise from it that morning.
The envelope arrives in December. It tells you what Social Security will pay you for every month of 2027. The number inside gets decided on Wednesday morning.
Here is the machinery. The law averages one inflation index across July, August and September, then compares it with the same three months a year earlier.
July came in at 327.104. August came in at 328.481. Both are published and neither can change. September is the last input, and it arrives at 8:30 on Wednesday.
PAID PARTNERSHIP · GREEN COFFEE COMPANY
Green Coffee Company farms
In 1992 a small coffee company out of Seattle sold shares to the public at about 27 cents, split-adjusted.
Two men read the same prospectus that year.
One put money in. The other decided coffee was a fad and kept his cash where it felt safe.
You know how that ended. The stock trades above $90 today.
Nobody is going to tell you the next one is sitting in front of you. No one can know that.
But the shape of the decision does not change. One man looked at what he had and put it to work. The other looked at it and saw only what he might lose.
So here is one real thing happening now, and you can weigh it yourself.
Green Coffee Company is the largest producer of Colombian coffee. 45 farms. More than 10 million trees. It holds the exclusive third-party rights to sell Juan Valdez coffee across the U.S. and Canada, the brand Colombia has stood behind since 1959.
Revenue went from $1 million in 2021 to $26 million in 2025. This year’s harvest is projected at 5.1 million pounds, up from 2.3 million. The coffee is on more than 3,000 shelves now, in Target, in Walgreens, across 21 states.
A farmer plants a coffee tree and waits years for a real harvest. That is the whole business. It is also the whole point.
Shares are $1.15. The minimum is $1,000.50. More than 2,000 investors have already put in over $120 million. It is private, it is illiquid, and you could lose what you put in. Read the circular and decide for yourself.
Paid affiliate advertisement. Green Coffee Company is offering securities under Regulation A. An offering statement has been filed with and qualified by the SEC; qualification means only that the company may sell the securities described in it. Review the offering circular before investing. The shares are private, unlisted and illiquid, there is no secondary market, transfers are subject to board approval, and you may lose your entire investment. Revenue growth and past performance do not predict future results. Non-accredited investors may invest no more than 10% of the greater of annual income or net worth. Rights apply to retail and institutional sales in the U.S. and Canada (non-cafe business) and are governed by a 10-year agreement to manufacture and distribute the iconic Juan Valdez® brand in the U.S. and Canada. Juan Valdez®, Procafecol S.A., the National Coffee Federation of Colombia, and any of their respective affiliates (collectively, the “Juan Valdez Parties”) are not sponsors, issuers, co-issuers, promoters, guarantors, underwriters, placement agents, or participants in any manner in this investment offering. The Juan Valdez Parties have not reviewed, approved, authorized, endorsed, recommended, or verified this offering, any related offering materials, or any statements made herein, and do not express any view or opinion regarding the merits, risks, or suitability of this investment. Any reference to the “Juan Valdez®” brand or related trademarks is made solely for the limited purpose of describing an existing commercial agreement relating to the manufacture, marketing, and sale of certain coffee products. Such agreement does not extend to, and expressly excludes, any securities offering, fundraising activity, investment program, or capital-raising transaction. Investors should not rely on the existence of any trademark license, brand association, or commercial agreement with the Juan Valdez Parties as an indicator of financial performance, investment quality, creditworthiness, risk mitigation, or likelihood of success of the issuer or this offering. The continuation of any commercial agreement is subject to contractual terms and conditions and may be modified or terminated, and no assurance is given that any such relationship will continue for any period of time. No Juan Valdez Party assumes any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the information contained in this offering, nor for any investment decision made by any investor.
Forecasters have landed in a narrow band, between 3.2% and 3.6%. The Senior Citizens League says 3.5%. The analyst Mary Johnson says 3.4%, which works out at about $69 a month for the average retired worker.
THE STAKES
SEALED
3 months
DECIDE WHAT YOU ARE PAID FOR ALL OF 2027
→
Two of the three are already published and fixed. Once the average is struck on Wednesday, the law has no way to revisit it until next October.
Now the part that is easy to miss. The index is called CPI-W, and the W stands for wage earners. It is built from how working households spend, not how retired ones do.
That matters because the two baskets are not the same. Retired households put more into medical care and less into getting to work.
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One cost is already in view. Medicare’s trustees estimated in June that the standard Part B premium rises to $209.50 a month in 2027, from $202.90. CMS sets the final figure in November.
That is $6.60 more every month, taken straight out of the cheque before it reaches your bank. Against a $69 raise it eats roughly a tenth.
You have heard that the raise keeps you even with prices. It keeps you even with last summer’s prices, measured on somebody else’s shopping list.
The last raise above 3% was the 3.2% paid in 2024. Since then it has been 2.5% and 2.8%. This one looks set to clear 3% again, which is the good news and the whole of it.
SPONSORED
One a month, each announced before it arrives. The first lands November 13.
EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
01
Can it be undone?
No. The 2027 figure is fixed for twelve months once the September average is struck, and the first payments carry it in January.
SEALED
02
Who is already repositioning?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the number at 8:30 Wednesday. Social Security announces the same morning, and Medicare has already set out its own 2027 estimate.
3 NAMED
03
What does being late cost?
Nothing on Wednesday. It costs you in January, when the deposit lands and the two changes have already been netted against each other.
JANUARY
THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Before Wednesday, write down two numbers from your my Social Security account. Your current gross monthly benefit, and the Medicare premium being deducted from it. In January, pull both again and compare.
If you are not on Medicare yet, the premium half does not apply to you. Nobody can tell you the figure before 8:30 Wednesday, so this is preparation rather than prediction.
ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
 
An attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on Saturday killed 12 people, including an American, and wounded more than 300.
WORLD
 
Brent crude traded near $103 on Friday morning after Trump said there would be no strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms.
MONEY
 
China is set to resume fuel exports after a suspension of about a week.
RESOURCES
WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
The formula is public, the two early months are already on the record, and the last one arrives at a time you can read in advance. Most people meet the result on a December letter. You can watch it being made.
WE WATCH THE BOX.