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PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
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THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Sixty Votes On Tuesday Or The Bill Waits For 2027
The Senate votes on cloture for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Sixty votes are needed just to begin the debate.
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It is not a vote on the bill. Tuesday decides whether the Senate may start debating it at all. Cloture on the motion to proceed takes sixty.
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The House passed its version 294 to 134 last year. The Banking Committee advanced its own text 15 to 9 in May. Neither of those is the Senate floor.
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60
VOTES NEEDED TUESDAY TO OPEN THE DEBATE
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Senators come back Monday to a short calendar before the midterm campaign. Prediction traders priced the chance of it becoming law near 17 percent in August. |
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Three things are still unsettled: the ethics language, the illicit finance rules, and whether a stablecoin balance may pay yield. Banks want that last one shut. They say yield on a token balance pulls deposits out of lenders.
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FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX
Dear Reader,
I’ve been following Elon’s career for decades…
When the mainstream media said Tesla would fail…
I doubled down.
And the stock has risen 1,510% since.
I’ve inspected Elon’s facilities around the country…
And I was one of the first to predict SpaceX’s IPO.
Now, I believe Elon is about to make his latest invention available to the public.
When he does, sales could go through the roof.
And the stock price of one of his critical partners could soar.
I expect Elon to make this announcement any day now. By the end of the month at worst.
But you never know with Elon…
He could post it on X tomorrow.
So there’s very little time to act.
Before it’s front page news.
Regards,
Jeff Brown
Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research
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A vote can be held again. A Congress cannot. If Tuesday fails, the work restarts with new members in 2027.
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In the meantime the agencies keep writing the rules by interpretation. Rules written that way change when the people writing them change.
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
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Can it be undone?
A failed cloture can be filed again. The floor days left before the campaign cannot be added back.
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Who is already repositioning?
A sitting SEC commissioner says the agency keeps regulating whatever happens to the bill. The banks are working the yield clause.
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What does being late cost?
The Senate returns Monday and votes Tuesday. The Fed decides the day after that.
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Find out who actually holds anything you own on a platform.
Custody is the part of this bill that decides what happens to a balance if the platform fails. Until a statute says it, the answer comes from a user agreement. |
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ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
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Futures now put a Wednesday hike between 80 and 90 percent, up from under 70 before Friday’s print. |
MONEY |
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Brent slipped from a four month high on Friday. The S&P halted a four day fall on the back of it. |
RESOURCES |
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August retail sales land Wednesday morning, hours before the rate decision. |
WORK |
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SOURCES · SENATE CLOTURE FILING ON H.R. 3633 · SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE MARKUP, MAY 14 · POLYMARKET PRICING, AUGUST · CME FUTURES PRICING, SEPT 12
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Sixty senators are not your problem. Reading one user agreement before Tuesday is a Sunday job. WE WATCH THE BOX.
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