|
PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
|
|
THE ONE-WAY DOOR
The private insurance market only leaves
Florida non-renewed one in thirty homes last year. California non-renewed almost the same, at nearly four times its baseline rate.
|
|
The letter arrives in a plain envelope. It gives you notice. Thirty to sixty days. Your homeowner’s policy will not renew. In hurricane-prone states with September renewal dates, that letter is dated August.
|
|
Florida non-renewed one in thirty homes last year. That is the highest rate in the country. Up sharply from twenty eighteen. Its state insurer of last resort dropped from one point four million policies at the peak. Today it holds about three hundred and ninety five thousand.
|
|
|
|
1 IN 30
FLORIDA HOMES LOST THEIR CARRIER LAST YEAR
|
| → |
This is the highest rate in the country, and one point seven times what it was in twenty eighteen. The retreat has widened each year since twenty twenty three. The private market keeps leaving certain ZIPs faster than reforms rebuild the risk pool. |
|
|
|
California was almost the same. One in thirty one. Nearly four times its twenty eighteen baseline. State Farm stopped writing new home policies there in twenty twenty three. The California market has been closed to new business ever since.
|
|
Louisiana pays a hundred and fifty nine dollars in claims. For every hundred it collects in premium. The math is broken. Rates there run three times the national average.
|
|
When your carrier leaves, the state pool takes on the risk. State pool rates run higher. Higher than the private market they replaced. And the pool is not required to price cheaply.
|
|
Twenty new carriers entered Florida after last year’s reforms. But they are not the same carriers that left, and the risk pool has been reshuffled. The private market does not come back the same way it went out.
|
|
EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
|
| 01 |
Can it be undone?
The physical risks are already set for this hurricane season. Insurers price a decade back and a decade forward, and neither leg is friendly. A carrier that walked out of a wildfire ZIP is not filing to write in it again.
|
|
|
| 02 |
Who is already moving?
State Farm has been closed to new California home policies for three years. Florida’s Citizens shed a million policies to newly authorized carriers. California’s FAIR Plan now holds the wildfire risk private insurers walked out on. State legislatures are writing rules the private market has to accept.
|
|
|
| 03 |
What does being late cost?
Mortgage lenders now check insurability before writing loans in high-risk ZIPs. Some homes are trading at discounts because private coverage cannot be found. The value of your house is now tied to whether a carrier will write it.
|
|
|
|
THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Do not wait for the letter. If your ZIP has had a recent non-renewal wave, shop six months out. Not sixty days.
The FAIR plan or Citizens is a backstop, not a bargain. Rates in state pools run higher than the private market they replaced. Coming out of a state pool takes longer than going in. |
|
|
ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
|
Treasury drops its quarterly refunding calendar Wednesday. Auction sizes land into a bond market with the thirty year yield at a nineteen year high. The bill mix keeps tilting short. |
MONEY |
|
SpaceX prints its first public earnings Monday after the close. Two trading days later, the lockup on nine hundred million insider shares opens for the first time since the June offering. |
MACHINES |
|
CMS finalizes second-round Medicare drug prices for January first. The cut is estimated at eight and a half billion off Part D spending. Round three closes negotiation by November thirtieth and includes the first Part B drugs. |
WORK |
|
|
WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Most people will file this under someone else’s ZIP. You will note which way the private market is moving. And check whether your own is next. Florida’s reforms brought new carriers back in. The shape of return is possible, if slower than the leaving was. WE WATCH THE BOX.
|
|
| |
