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PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
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THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Seven nuclear reactors of power are missing from 2028
The largest grid in the country came up short at its last auction. The delivery year is 2028. An emergency backstop auction is set for September.
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The grid sells its future in a summer auction. Once a year. Twelve months of decisions in a few days of bids.
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The auction sets the price of readiness. It is what the grid pays generators to sit and wait. For the hottest afternoon of a summer three years out.
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Two years ago that price was twenty nine dollars per megawatt-day. The next auction cleared at two seventy. The one just closed hit three twenty nine. That is the ceiling. Eleven times up in two summers.
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6.8 GW
MISSING FROM THE PJM GRID FOR SUMMER 2028
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That is about seven nuclear reactors of power. Bid for. Not sold. The grid sold three years out and came up short. The emergency auction is set for September. |
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Data centers are the reason. AI models need chips, and chips need power. The scale of that need has jumped in two years.
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The last auction came up six point eight gigawatts short. Seven nuclear reactors of missing power. Third short auction in a row.
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PJM will run an emergency auction in September. Data centers pay the bill first, not residents. But the shortfall is physical. New generation takes years to build.
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The clearing price flows into everyone’s electric bill. Not a projection. Bills went up one point five to five percent this year, depending on the state and utility. The data center is not next door. But you pay for it anyway.
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The auction clears. Obligations lock in for the delivery year. New generators arrive on the schedule of steel and permits. Not the schedule of demand. The buildout does not go back.
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
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Can it be undone?
The auction cleared. Obligations are locked in on the contracts for the delivery year. New generation cannot arrive from a September auction in time for summer of 2028. That is a two-year build at the fastest.
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Who is already moving?
PJM approved a six point seven billion transmission plan in February. The DOE granted emergency curtailment authority in May. Governors are pressing data centers to bring their own power. Nuclear developers are back at the SEC with reactor plans.
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What does being late cost?
Homeowners in thirteen states already pay a piece of it. Bills are up between one point five and five percent this year. Data centers will pay the next shortfall. Customers already paid for this one.
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Do not shop for a lower electric rate until you know what capacity charges are. Ask your utility to show the capacity line on your bill. That is where the grid math shows up.
Data centers do not appear on your bill by name. They appear in the capacity line. Know which number moves before you sign a new plan. |
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ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
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Treasury releases its third quarter borrowing needs at three PM today. The full refunding statement drops Wednesday. Short-term bill supply keeps climbing against the long end at multi-year yield highs. |
MONEY |
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SpaceX prints its first public earnings after the close today. Two trading days later, the lockup on nine hundred million insider shares opens for the first time since the June offering. |
MACHINES |
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BLS drops the July jobs number Friday at eight thirty. The rough draft is what the market will trade. Watch the two-month revisions to April and May in the same release. |
WORK |
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Most people will pay the capacity line on their bill and move on. You will read it as the invoice for a grid trying to catch up. The new transmission and new reactors are on the way. Later than the demand asked for. WE WATCH THE BOX.
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