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PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
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THE ONE-WAY DOOR
The Thirty Year Printed Six Ninety Five At Noon Yesterday
The survey came in nineteen basis points above last week, on the morning the Fed’s new floor took effect. The Treasury spent the same week buying its own bonds back.
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The bill came the same day. Freddie Mac put the thirty year fixed at 6.95 percent on September 17, against 6.76 percent a week earlier. The Fed’s target range of 3.75 to 4 percent took effect that morning.
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Further down the same implementation note, the New York desk is told to buy Treasury bills whenever reserves need topping up. The Treasury has doubled its own long bond buybacks to at least four billion dollars an operation, running through November 4.
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6.95
PERCENT ON THE THIRTY YEAR FIXED, UP FROM 6.76
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On a three hundred thousand dollar loan that is 38 dollars a month more than last week, and 137 dollars more than a year ago. |
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A rate is not an opinion. It is the floor under every quote written from this morning forward, and it was set this week by two offices that were not pulling the same direction.
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FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX
Trump Is Preparing a Financial Executive Order Unlike Anything Since 1971. Here’s What It Means for You.
Love him or hate him, and if you’re reading this, you love him, Trump plays to win.
He won in 2016 when nobody thought he could.
He came back in 2024 when they threw everything they had at him.
And right now, he’s preparing what insiders are calling the most consequential financial executive order any American president has considered in over 50 years.
This isn’t about tariffs. It’s not about the border.
It’s about something that touches every dollar in your pocket, your savings account, and your retirement.
The last time Washington made a move like this:
One asset gained 2,300% in under 10 years.
The people who saw it coming changed their financial lives forever. |
This time the stakes are even higher.
The U.S. is sitting on 8,133 tonnes of gold valued at 1973 prices.
One executive order from Trump corrects that, and sets off the biggest wealth transfer most living Americans have ever witnessed.
Trump’s base has always been the people the system forgot. Hard-working Americans who played by the rules while Washington rigged the game.
This is your chance to get ahead of it, before the order is signed, using the same strategy the ultra-wealthy have always used.
This is an advertisement. If you no longer wish to receive promotional emails, please unsubscribe here. Or write to: 5005 Lyndon B. Johnson Fwy. Suite 350, Dallas, TX 75244
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If you looked at refinancing this year and waited, you were not being slow. Every chart on every screen said the next move was down.
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It was up, and it came on a Wednesday afternoon with a unanimous vote behind it.
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
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Can it be undone? Buyback sizes can be cut at the November 4 refunding. The precedent that a Treasury buys its own long paper cannot. |
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Who is already repositioning? The mortgage desks. The Fed moved 25 basis points on Wednesday. The thirty year average had already moved 19 by Thursday noon. |
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03 |
What does being late cost? On a three hundred thousand dollar mortgage, about 457 dollars a year against last week and about 1,641 against last September. |
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Pull the rate off your own paper this weekend, not the survey average.
Then write down the one number that would make you act, a rate or a payment or a date. If the November 4 refunding cuts the buybacks back and the long end falls with them, the right move is to do nothing, and you will know that only because the number is written down. |
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ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
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The Board raised the rate paid on bank reserves to 3.90 percent, in a unanimous vote. |
MONEY |
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Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 for the week ending September 12, with continuing claims at 1.730 million. |
WORK |
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The fifteen year fixed averaged 6.26 percent on the same survey, against 5.41 percent a year ago. |
MONEY |
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SOURCES · FEDERAL RESERVE IMPLEMENTATION NOTE, SEPT 16 · FREDDIE MAC PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY, SEPT 17 · TREASURY BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT AND TENTATIVE SCHEDULE · LABOR DEPARTMENT WEEKLY CLAIMS, SEPT 17
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
A rate gets published every Thursday at noon. Knowing your own is the part Washington cannot set. WE WATCH THE BOX.
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