PANDORA’S BOX EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM. |
THE ONE-WAY DOOR The ad bill for these midterms passed $10 billion with three weeks still to run That already beats the whole of 2020 and the whole of 2022. The forecast for the full cycle is $11.6 billion. |
In Bangor on Thursday, two candidates met for the last Maine Senate debate. By then about $260 million of advertising had already been bought in that one race. |
On Wednesday the tracking firm AdImpact put a number on the whole cycle. Spending has passed $10 billion. |
That figure is advertising already aired plus air time already reserved. It is past the final totals for the whole of 2020 and the whole of 2022. |
Who writes the cheques is part of the story. In September alone more than $1 billion went to ads and reservations, most of it from Republican advertisers. |
Elon Musk gave more than $250 million to Republican campaign groups in the past three months. |
FROM OUR PARTNERS |
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Democrats are not short of money either. Their edge is candidate cash, which buys air time at lower rates than outside groups pay. |
| $10BN AIRED OR BOOKED, THREE WEEKS TO GO | → | AdImpact projects $11.6 billion for the full cycle. That would pass the $11.2 billion of the 2024 presidential year. |
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Midterms used to be the cheap ones. In 2018 the figure was $3.6 billion. |
In 2022 it was about $8.9 billion. This cycle cleared that with three weeks still to run. |
The congressional races alone have put $3.8 billion on the air. That is more than $870 million ahead of the same point in 2024. |
Senate advertising is projected at $3.4 billion by the end of the cycle. That is up 48 percent from 2022. |
Single races carry the weight. Ohio has passed $460 million. Texas has passed half a billion. |
Maine, with its $260 million, is by far the smallest state on that short list. |
The word doing the work here is reservations. Air time is booked weeks ahead of the slot. |
So the money is committed before most of these ads have run. A booked slot is not easily unbooked. |
NPR set the figure against the thing the ads are mostly about. Voters who are struggling to afford groceries and gas. |
That is the gap worth sitting with. Ten billion dollars of persuasion, aimed at households counting what they spend. |
Thursday’s filings added one more wrinkle. Money moved into super PACs from nonprofits that do not have to name their own donors. |
PAID PARTNERSHIP | |
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Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
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There is a fair question sitting under all of it. NPR put it to its own political desk this week. |
Whether there are limits to what the extra cash can actually do to an outcome. Nobody tracking it sounded certain. |
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS The One-Way-Door Test |
01 | Can it be undone? Aired money is gone and booked money is committed. Reservations are made weeks before the slot runs. | |
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02 | Who is already repositioning? Both sides, into a short list of states. Republicans held the aired-ad lead in seven of the eight top Senate races. | |
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03 | What does being late cost? Nothing at the till this month. The bill arrives later, in what the winners do with the seats. | |
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME Next time an ad interrupts you, read the line naming who paid for it. Write the name down. Three weeks is long enough to see a pattern. That line names the committee, not always the donor behind it. Thursday’s filings showed exactly that gap. |
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ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY | The New York Fed’s services index fell to minus 20.7 in October, from minus 8.7 in September. That is its sharpest drop in seven months. | MONEY |
| Protesters and students marched across France on Saturday against the cost of living, as the country’s fiscal crisis deepens. | WORLD |
| Meta and Tesla both report on Wednesday after the close. Meta has guided 2026 capital spending to between $130 billion and $145 billion. | LATER |
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM Ten billion dollars buys a great deal of airtime and not one vote. The ballot is still the cheapest thing in the whole arrangement. WE WATCH THE BOX. |
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