PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Eight Days Out, Futures Lean Toward A Hike
A hike on September 16 would move the range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The Fed is split in public about whether to move at all.
Nothing gets decided this week. The Fed votes on September 16. What happens between now and then is that borrowers keep signing.
Three dates stand between here and the vote: the buyback tomorrow, PPI Thursday, CPI Friday at 8:30. Friday is the one that matters. It is the last inflation print the Fed sees before it votes.
THE STAKES
AJAR
57%
LOW END OF THE FUTURES LEAN TOWARD A HIKE
→
The curve reads 57 to 60 percent, so the other branch is still live. The Fed is split in public and says so itself.
Gold gave the first answer. It opened Friday near $4,520 and finished near $4,400 once the jobs number landed.
That is what a hike lean does to metal. Cash pays more while metal pays nothing.
The vote is reversible. The paper signed this week is not. Every refinancing and every rate lock dated this week has next week’s guess priced inside it.
FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX
 
 
On Wednesday, September 16, Trump’s new Federal Reserve will announce its next interest-rate decision.
And one overlooked ticker could begin moving before most investors understand why.
That’s why legendary trader Larry Benedict says the time to see this ticker is now…
Not after the decision hits the financial news.
In January 2022, Larry positioned his readers ahead of a major Fed announcement.
In under a month, they had the chance to make 117%.
Following another Fed announcement, Larry handed readers the opportunity to make 89% in just 17 days.
Now he believes the September 16 decision could trigger another string of opportunities.
Because the Fed won’t only announce what it is doing with interest rates.
It will also release fresh projections that could change expectations across the entire market.
When that happens, billions of dollars could start moving within minutes.
And Larry believes one ticker sits directly in its path.
Larry has recorded a short briefing revealing the ticker completely free…
Along with what he believes could happen when Trump’s Fed makes its move.
But timing matters.
By the time the newspapers explain what happened on September 16, the opportunity could already be passing.
Regards,
Lauren Wingfield, Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader
You do not need to guess the number. You need to know which of your own numbers is not fixed yet.
EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
01
Can it be undone?
The Fed can cut back whatever it raises. A loan signed at next week’s price runs its full term.
AJAR
02
Who is already repositioning?
Gold repriced on Friday, before anyone voted. The futures curve moved the same day the jobs number landed.
2 NAMED
03
What does being late cost?
CPI lands Friday at 8:30. The vote is eight days out.
DATED
THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Find the reset date on anything you owe at a floating rate.
Cards, a home equity line, a business line: the reset date is the only part of a Fed decision that reaches you. If everything you owe is fixed, next week changes nothing you can act on.
ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
 
The Treasury runs its first doubled buyback tomorrow, at four billion dollars or more in the long end.
MONEY
 
The Senate votes on the crypto market bill next Tuesday at 2:15 in the afternoon, Eastern time.
LAWS
 
Apple shows a new iPhone tomorrow at one in the afternoon, Eastern time. Oracle reports Thursday after the close.
MACHINES
SOURCES · CME FEDWATCH FUTURES PRICING · BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS RELEASE SCHEDULE · SPOT GOLD, SEPT 4 SESSION · U.S. TREASURY BUYBACK OPERATION SCHEDULE
WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Eight days is enough time to read one page of your own paperwork. Nothing you have to sign this week is due today.
WE WATCH THE BOX.
 
 

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