PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Europe Raised Rates Because Of Oil
The deposit rate went to 2.5 percent, the second hike since the war in Iran began. Lagarde said energy costs will keep feeding into core and food prices.
Oil is inside the rate decision now. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.5 percent yesterday. It was the second increase since the conflict in Iran pushed energy prices up.
Lagarde called the decision a no brainer. She said the vote was unanimous. She also said higher energy costs will feed gradually into core and food prices.
THE STAKES
CLOSING
2.5%
ECB DEPOSIT RATE AFTER THE SECOND HIKE
→
American producer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, in line with forecasts. Energy drove more than three quarters of the increase in goods.
American CPI prints at 8:30 this morning. It is the last inflation number the Fed sees before it votes next week. Europe has already shown which way energy pushes a central bank.
FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX
 
On Sunday evening, August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon interrupted regular television programming.
He spoke for 15 minutes.
By the time he finished, the gold standard was over. The dollar was no longer backed by anything except the government’s word. And every dollar in every American’s savings account had quietly changed, not in number, but in what it actually meant.
Nixon didn’t ask Congress. He didn’t hold a debate. He used a single executive authority and by Monday morning the monetary world had shifted.
The people who saw it coming had already moved. Gold tripled in three years. Over the next decade it went up twenty times.
The people who didn’t understand what was happening watched their savings quietly lose value for a decade. They never recovered it.
Here’s what the financial press isn’t saying clearly:
Trump has that same executive authority today. And his own advisors are now openly saying the reversal of what Nixon did is on the table.
If he acts, it moves fast. There are two ways this plays out. Both of them move gold in the same direction.
We put together a free briefing on exactly what Nixon did, why Trump is the first president positioned to reverse it, and the one move Americans can make right now to be on the right side of what comes next.
Free. 30 seconds to request.
Nixon didn’t warn anyone before that Sunday night broadcast.
Trump’s advisors are warning you right now.
Image
 
Reagan Gold Group does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice. This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult your licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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A rate cut can be taken back. A price that has moved into the base does not come back out on a vote.
That is the part a household feels. Food and heating are where energy shows up last. They are also where it stays longest.
EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
01
Can it be undone?
The ECB can cut again later. The energy already inside the price base has to be lived through.
CLOSING
02
Who is already repositioning?
Investors are adding bets on further hikes, with reporting that October is live. Wholesale diesel jumped 24.1 percent in a single month.
PRICED IN
03
What does being late cost?
CPI lands at 8:30 this morning. The Fed meets Tuesday and votes Wednesday.
DATED
THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Put last October’s power and heating bills next to this year’s.
The percentage on your own bill is the only inflation number that matches your life. If your utility locked a fixed rate for the season, the increase arrives next spring instead.
ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
 
Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales jumped 121 percent to $7.4 billion, ahead of the $7.19 billion analysts looked for.
MACHINES
 
Euro area inflation ran 3.3 percent in August. Energy alone was up 14.3 percent, everything else 2.2.
MONEY
 
Europe has now raised twice since the fighting in Iran started. That is what a war looks like on a rate sheet.
WARS
SOURCES · EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, SEPT 10 · EUROSTAT, AUGUST FLASH · BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS PPI, AUGUST · ORACLE Q1 FY27 RESULTS AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS
WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
The rate decision is not yours to make. The two bills on your kitchen table take five minutes to compare.
WE WATCH THE BOX.
 
 

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