|
PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
|
|
THE ONE-WAY DOOR
The man selling the chips says the money is the problem now
Broadcom’s chief executive named capital as the biggest constraint ahead. His own banks are arranging it.
|
|
He said it on a panel in Singapore. Hock Tan runs Broadcom, which builds the custom chips behind much of the AI buildout. On Monday he named the constraint ahead. Capital.
|
|
He has spent two years working through shortages of memory, wafers and power. He expects those to ease. The money is the part he flags now.
|
PAID PARTNERSHIP · GREEN COFFEE COMPANY |
|
Same 11-ounce bag of coffee, priced at both ends. Almost every company in this business owns one end or the other. Green Coffee Company owns nearly the whole middle, and it publishes the math.
Picked cherry $2.03. Wet mill $2.63. Dry mill $3.23. Roasted by a partner $4.41. Distributed $6.30. Packaged as Juan Valdez $8.40. On a Target shelf $13.99.
Behind those numbers: 45 farms in Colombia, more than 10,000 acres, over 10 million trees, the largest milling capacity in the country, and a harvest projected at 5.1 million pounds this year against 2.3 million last. Coffee in more than 3,000 stores across 21 states. Revenue from $1 million in 2021 to $26 million in 2025.
Most of it still sells at the green coffee stage, and that is the point. The ladder above is available to climb, not already climbed.
$1.15 a share. $1,000.50 minimum, roughly 870 shares, no accreditation required. Private and illiquid, no secondary market, transfers need board approval, and the whole position can go to zero.
Rights apply to retail and institutional sales in the U.S. and Canada (non-cafe business) and are governed by a 10-year agreement to manufacture and distribute the iconic Juan Valdez® brand in the U.S. and Canada. Juan Valdez®, Procafecol S.A., the National Coffee Federation of Colombia, and any of their respective affiliates (collectively, the “Juan Valdez Parties”) are not sponsors, issuers, co-issuers, promoters, guarantors, underwriters, placement agents, or participants in any manner in this investment offering. The Juan Valdez Parties have not reviewed, approved, authorized, endorsed, recommended, or verified this offering, any related offering materials, or any statements made herein, and do not express any view or opinion regarding the merits, risks, or suitability of this investment. Any reference to the “Juan Valdez®” brand or related trademarks is made solely for the limited purpose of describing an existing commercial agreement relating to the manufacture, marketing, and sale of certain coffee products. Such agreement does not extend to, and expressly excludes, any securities offering, fundraising activity, investment program, or capital-raising transaction. Investors should not rely on the existence of any trademark license, brand association, or commercial agreement with the Juan Valdez Parties as an indicator of financial performance, investment quality, creditworthiness, risk mitigation, or likelihood of success of the issuer or this offering. The continuation of any commercial agreement is subject to contractual terms and conditions and may be modified or terminated, and no assurance is given that any such relationship will continue for any period of time. No Juan Valdez Party assumes any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the information contained in this offering, nor for any investment decision made by any investor. |
|
|
Here is why it reaches past the chip trade. Broadcom’s own banks are assembling the loans its customers need to buy its chips.
|
|
Bloomberg puts the Anthropic package at $60 billion. The Wall Street Journal puts the OpenAI chip financing at more than $50 billion.
|
|
|
|
$110 billion
BEING ARRANGED SO CUSTOMERS CAN BUY THE CHIPS
|
→ |
Revenue booked today rests on money borrowed today. The order is filled either way, and the loan outlives the quarter it paid for. |
|
|
|
The practice has a name. Vendor financing. A supplier helps fund the purchase of its own product, and the sale lands in this year’s revenue.
|
|
It is old and often sound. Caterpillar and IBM have run customer financing books for decades against buyers with real cash flow.
|
|
The version that went wrong was narrower. By fiscal 2000 Lucent had agreed to provide up to $8.1 billion of credit to telecom buyers that could not fund themselves.
|
|
When those buyers failed, Lucent set aside $2.2 billion for bad customer debt in 2001, and $1.3 billion more in 2002.
|
FROM OUR PARTNERS |
Why does the richest man in the world keep turning up at President Trump’s side?
Back in May, Elon Musk flew to Beijing on Air Force One alongside the President, one of only two CEOs, out of the 17 on the trip, given a seat on the President’s plane.
A year earlier, he was at Trump’s side in Riyadh, where the President personally introduced him to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
And he was in the room again in September, seated at the head table with Trump and Xi Jinping when the Chinese leader arrived for a state dinner at the White House.
Yet while the media obsesses over his rockets and robots, almost nobody is asking why he keeps showing up at these major political events.
My name is Porter Stansberry.
For nearly 30 years, I’ve helped millions of Americans move ahead of the market’s biggest shifts.
In 2006, I warned that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were heading for collapse, years before they brought the American banking system to its knees. Barron’s called my work “remarkably prescient.”
In 2008, I told readers General Motors was in a “death spiral,” less than a year before it filed for bankruptcy.
And in 2020, I warned that COVID-era money-printing would unleash the worst inflation in a generation. It did.
Today I would like to share fresh research that could have a bigger effect on your personal wealth than anything I’ve exposed before.
Without a vote in Congress, and with almost no coverage in the financial press, President Trump has set in motion what I believe is the first reset of America’s money since 1974.
Assembled through a flurry of executive orders and a landmark pact signed by 13 nations inside the State Department. And as you’ll see, I believe Elon Musk sits right at the center of it.
The last time America reset its money on this scale, by some estimates it minted more than a thousand new millionaires a day… while quietly hollowing out the savings of millions who never understood what was happening.
And on December 14, when world leaders gather at Trump’s Miami resort, I believe this new monetary order could be presented as a done deal.
In my documentary, you’ll discover: How Trump’s monetary reset connects everything from his tariff wars to his obsession with Greenland, and why I believe it’s all part of a larger plan to replace the petrodollar. Why the U.S. government is buying ownership stakes in tiny American mining companies, a move not seen since the depths of World War II. How the most popular investments of the last decade could be among the worst bets of the new monetary order. The five companies I believe sit at the heart of what’s unfolding, including the name and ticker of my No. 1 move before December 14.
Good investing,
Porter Stansberry |
|
|
Tan drew the line himself. He likened some of the money flowing into the sector to casino gambling. Elon Musk answered in public: no crying in the casino.
|
|
Intel’s chief executive raised the same worry on the same day. He pointed at the rising cost of capital and whether the returns show up.
|
|
You have heard that the chip makers are the safe way to own AI. That can hold and still leave you carrying the buyers’ credit risk.
|
|
A sale financed by the seller is still a sale. It is also a loan, and loans have a second act.
|
ADVERTISEMENT |
Your savings exist only where a bank, a custodian and a federal framework all agree they do. For most people that is fine. For savers who want one asset that does not depend on that chain, physical gold has been the answer for generations. Priority Gold’s free guide covers how it works inside an IRA, and what it costs. |
|
|
EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
|
01 |
Can it be undone?
Individual deals can still be pulled. The practice of the chip seller helping arrange the buyer’s money is now ordinary, and ordinary does not reverse.
|
|
|
02 |
Who is already repositioning?
Broadcom’s banks are syndicating two packages. Intel’s chief executive flagged the same risk, and Musk answered Tan in public.
|
|
|
03 |
What does being late cost?
Nothing this quarter. The bill lands when a buyer cannot pay and the write-off turns up in somebody’s quarterly report.
|
|
|
|
THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
Pick one AI company you own and open its last quarterly report. Find two numbers. Its revenue, and its announced capital spending. Write both on the same page.
Broadcom’s AI chip revenue rose 221% last quarter to $16.7 billion, so the demand is real. Large announced spending is not proof of trouble on its own. |
|
|
ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
|
Goldman Sachs beat expectations and JPMorgan missed, on the first day of earnings season. |
MONEY |
|
The death toll from Saturday’s attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport rose to 18. |
WORLD |
|
OPEC raised its 2027 oil demand forecast, citing inventories drained by the Iran conflict, and cut its 2026 outlook for a sixth straight month. |
RESOURCES |
|
|
WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
Both men said it on a stage with reporters in the room. The ratio they are worried about sits in public filings. You can read it before the next quarter does. WE WATCH THE BOX.
|
|
| |
|
