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PANDORA’S BOX
EVERYTHING GOT OUT. THE HOPE IS AT THE BOTTOM.
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THE ONE-WAY DOOR
Russia’s few-week diesel ban just ran into its fourth month
Moscow extended it through October on Wednesday. America’s own diesel already sits at records, and heating season starts now.
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The notice came out of Moscow on Wednesday. Russia extended its ban on most diesel exports through October 31. It was first meant to last a matter of weeks.
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The ban began in July, after Ukrainian drone strikes knocked Russian refineries offline. It was extended through August, then September, and now October. Before the strikes, Russia shipped roughly 10 percent of the world’s seaborne diesel.
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PAID PARTNERSHIP |
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Dear Friend,
In February a company paid 200 million dollars for a dead aluminum smelter in Hawesville, Kentucky.
The locals called it an eyesore.
Five months later that same dirt signed a 19 billion dollar lease with Anthropic. Twenty years.
Nobody is making aluminum.
Something the smelter left behind is worth more than the smelter ever was, and Wall Street has not put a name to it yet.
Dylan Jovine has.
“The Buck Stops Here,”
Kelly Maguire
Behind the Markets |
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Here is where it lands at your end. Diesel moves the trucks, trains and farm equipment behind almost everything you buy. AAA put the national average at a record $6.49 a gallon on September 20.
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4 months
OF A BAN FIRST MEANT TO LAST A FEW WEEKS
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A temporary measure that keeps getting renewed stops being temporary. Buyers who counted on Russian barrels now have to replace them before winter. |
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Supplies here were already thin. In mid-September, the Energy Information Administration put U.S. inventories of diesel and heating oil 13 percent below their five-year average.
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Washington may tighten the same market from the other side. On Sunday, President Trump said he was looking very seriously at a ban on U.S. diesel exports.
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An American ban would cut what Europe can buy here and push it to bid harder everywhere else. Oxford Economics and Goldman Sachs estimate European diesel could jump as much as 50 percent if it happens.
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You have heard the word temporary about fuel rules before. The honest test is the renewal count, and this one is now on its fourth.
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Heating oil comes out of the same barrel, and the furnaces switch on this month.
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EVERY LEAD PASSES BEFORE IT RUNS
The One-Way-Door Test
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Can it be undone?
Moscow could lift it any month. Ukrainian strikes keep its refineries offline, though, and every extension so far has arrived on schedule.
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Who is already repositioning?
Moscow renewed the ban and Washington is weighing its own. Oxford Economics and Goldman Sachs expect Europe to reach for emergency reserves if America closes its door.
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What does being late cost?
Every renewal adds a month of tighter supply heading into winter. Freight and heating bills reset faster than paychecks do.
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THE MOVE · WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
If a fall delivery, move or contractor job is on your list, get the quote in writing this week. Ask whether it carries a floating fuel surcharge, and push for a fixed price if it does.
If diesel eases after a peace deal or a warm winter, a fixed quote could cost a little more than waiting. Most surcharges reset monthly, so the risk runs both ways. |
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ALSO GOT LOOSE TODAY
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The S&P 500 slipped 0.25% on Wednesday and closed its worst month since June. The Dow lost 4.3% in September. |
MONEY |
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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected on Wednesday, paring bets on an October rate hike. |
MONEY |
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President Trump denied reports that he would ease sanctions on Iran, while indirect talks over a counterproposal continued. |
WORLD |
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WHAT’S LEFT AT THE BOTTOM
A ban renewed four times is a ban you can plan around. You now hold the renewal count, the inventory number and a month of notice. That is a head start on the winter bill. WE WATCH THE BOX.
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